Date: a month ago   Category: Economy

"Chances of further strengthening": the expert about ruble and price of oil — Rambler News Service


Photo: TASS / Pavel Smertin on April 22 the cost of Brent crude oil grew to $74 for barrel for the first time since the end of October of last year against the background of news about introduction of a total ban by Washington on purchase of the Iranian oil since May 3, 2019. The chief analyst of "BKS of Premieres" Anton Pokatovich in a conversation with RNS suggested that in this regard the Russian currency has every chance of strengthening in relation to dollar. The Expected strengthening of pressure of the USA upon Iran will lead optimistic expectations to increase in potential for growth of oil quotations in the next several weeks to $75-76, Pokatovich considers. In general in the world market of oil there is a deficiency of the offer, in particular its heavy grades to which the Iranian raw materials and the Russian oil of the Urals brand belong. In case of leaving of Tehran from the market the deficiency will increase that will allow to keep the award Urals to the quotations of Brent. At the same time Urals oil will give to the Russian currency "fundamental support". "In more short term — several weeks — in the absence of a negative in the geopolitical plane across Russia and continuation of growth of oil the ruble has chances of further strengthening to levels 62.7-63.3 to dollar" — the expert claims. Pokatovich emphasized that the increased demand for the Russian assets and currency manages to be maintained including thanks to lack of new sanctions from the USA and the western countries. Sanctions risks are the main trigger which can lead to depreciation of ruble. In "BKS of Premieres" consider that in the next two months these risks remain raised for Russia. In particular, Washington can enter restrictive measures against Moscow because of a position on Venezuela and Nicolás Maduro's government. Influencing factors the Ministry of Economic Development (MED) of Russia in the prepared "Scenario conditions … for 2020 and for planning period of 2021 and 2022", published on April 22, predicted strengthening of ruble in case of renewal of inflow of funds of nonresidents for bond market of a federal loan, weak dynamics of import against the background of rigid budgetary and monetary and credit the politician and also depreciation of U.S. dollar in relation to euro. Depreciation of the Russian currency can happen in case of mitigation monetary and credit and budgetary the politician in the second half of 2019, preservation of interventions of the Central Bank in the foreign exchange market in volumes which exceed purchases of currency within the budgetary rule and also as a result of the expected reduction of prices of oil and goods of the Russian export. According to the forecast of the MEDT, the total course will average for 2019 65.1 rub for $1. Department noted that implementation of macroeconomic policy of Russia within the budgetary rule provide low dependence of ruble exchange rate on dynamics of the prices of oil. In this regard the large role in formation of dynamics of ruble exchange rate to dollar will be played by capital flows. At the same time fundamental factors, in particular, economic growth, indicators of public finances and positive balance of the current account of wasps

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