Date: 7 months ago   Category: Economy

Experts of HSE allowed inflation higher than 5% in 2019 — Rambler News Service


Photo: RIA News/Vladimir the Song the Rate of inflation in 2019 can exceed 5%, including, it is stated in a response of HSE on the draft of the federal budget for 2019 and planning period of 2020 and 2021. "In 2019 the effect of increase in the VAT from 18% to 20% in a combination to weak ruble, the increased monthly inflation and growth of inflationary expectations is created by risks of excess by inflation of level of 5% following the results of a year" — it is said in the document. The HSE also notes that in 2018 inflation can reach the level of 3,8-4,2%. According to the experts, the effect of low base of the second half of the year 2017 can lead to increase in inflation not less than up to 3,6%. "If to add to it a weak harvest, considerable ruble depreciation for the last 6 months which just partially passed into consumer prices, and preparation for increase in the VAT since 2019 then the risk of excess by inflation of the level of 4% following the results of a year appears" — experts of HSE consider. The Audit Chamber in the conclusion on the draft of the federal budget for 2019 and planning period of 2020 and 2021 assumed that the rate of inflation by the end of the current year can approach 4%. Earlier in the Ministry of Economic Development said that at preservation of ruble exchange rate at the current levels inflation following the results of 2018 will make 3,7–3,9%. Achievement by inflation of expected value in 3,4% can happen at a ruble exchange rate exit to an expected trajectory since October, noted in department.

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