Date: 9 months ago   Category: Finance

The analyst has predicted strengthening of capital outflow from Russia — Rambler News Service


Photo: Egor of Aleev/TASS Capital outflow from Russia, most likely, won't stop until the end of the year, and by December can make about $50 billion that above the forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development which expects outflow at the level of $41 billion, the chief analyst of "BKS of Premieres" Anton Pokatovich has told RNS. He has explained that such dynamics is connected with the anti-Russian sanctions of the USA and the European Union and also with expectations of strengthening of sanctions pressure upon Russia. Besides, a certain role was played by a situation in other emerging economies, in particular, of Turkey and Argentina where considerable depreciation of national currencies and, as a result, capital outflow is observed. "Despite maintaining economic stability (the surplus budget, rather low level of an external debt and moderate growth of economy) for capital outflow rather salutary soil in the form of sanctions risks from the USA and the EU has been created from Russia. The scale of possible sanctions pressure grew since the end of August, and this growth continues" — Pokatovich has told. According to the analyst, in the conditions of capital outflow ruble exchange rate to dollar can fluctuate in the range of 69-71,5 with further gradual strengthening to level 67 by the end of the year if there is no further deterioration in the relations between Russia and the West and also on condition of stabilization of a situation in the financial markets of emerging economies. Pokatovich has added that increase in a key interest rate of the Central Bank could slow down rates of capital outflow from Russia. "The tough rhetoric of the Bank of Russia and also the report to participants of the market of the fact of existence of accurate strategy of consecutive actions in the short term will allow to stabilize national currency and to some extent the debt market" — the analyst has added, having noted that, according to him, the Central Bank can raise a rate with probability in 50%. At the beginning of September the head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina within the Global forum of Alliance for financial stability has said that the Bank of Russia fixes emergence of several factors in favor of possible increase in a key interest rate, however the decision on a rate will be made by the board of directors of the Central Bank. Earlier today the Minister of Economic Development of the Russian Federation Maxim Oreshkin in an interview of RIA Novosti has said that equilibrium ruble exchange rate at the current price of oil in $78 for barrel and on condition of lack of purchases of currency for the Ministry of Finance is about 50 rub for dollar. At the same time the minister has emphasized that depreciation of national currency is connected with short-term sharp capital outflow from Russia and that decline of ruble will stop when this outflow stops. Oreshkin has also added that he doesn't see any reasons for change of medium-term and long-term forecasts of a course in 63-64 rub for dollar now.

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