Date: 7 months ago   Category: Economy

The Audit Chamber considers too optimistical the budgeted ruble exchange rate — Rambler News Service


The Audit Chamber considers is superfluous optimistical the ruble exchange rate budgeted for 2019-2021 on condition of essential reduction of prices of oil. It is said in the conclusion of department on the draft budget which is at the disposal of RNS. "It is represented that the hypothesis of moderate weakening of rate of national currency put in a basis of conservative option in the conditions of essential decrease in the oil prices it is superfluous it is optimistical, even in the presence of the compensating mechanisms connected with implementation of the budgetary rule" — it is said in the document. The forecast is developed in two options — basic and conservative. Both versions of the Forecast provide bearish dynamics of prices of oil of the Urals brand. In basic option prices of oil fall throughout all forecast period from $69,6 for barrel in 2018 up to $57,9 for barrel in 2021 and up to $53,5 for barrel in 2024. The conservative scenario assumes that the price of oil of the Urals brand will sharply fall by 2020 — up to $42,5 for barrel. Further its weak growth — up to $43,3 for barrel in 2021 and up to $45,9 for barrel in 2024 is predicted. The Audit Chamber notes that at essential differences in dynamics of the oil prices expected dynamics of ruble exchange rate in basic and conservative options differs to a lesser extent. In basic option depreciation of national currency about 61,7 rubles for dollar in 2018 up to 63,9 rubles for dollar in 2019, up to 64 rubles for dollar by 2021 and up to 68 rubles for dollar by 2024 is expected. In conservative easing up to 65,7 rubles for dollar in 2019, up to 67,5 rubles for dollar in 2021 and up to 69,9 rubles for dollar by 2024 is predicted. The Audit Chamber considers that essential decrease in the oil prices can lead to more essential correction of a course.

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